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Playbooks / Property

Selling well

The price a property achieves is set mostly in the first three weeks of listing, because that is when the buyers already searching see it fresh, which makes the initial asking price the single most consequential decision in the sale and the one most often made by wishful thinking.

The rule

Everyone researches how to buy. Almost nobody researches how to sell, and the sell side is where the round trip cost is decided.

Why the first three weeks decide it

At any moment there is a pool of buyers actively looking in your building and your price bracket. When a new listing appears they all see it at once, and their interest is highest while it is new.

Price it correctly and you are competing for that attention with a number that survives comparison. Price it optimistically and the pool inspects it, discounts it, and moves on. They do not come back when you reduce, because by then the listing is old and the reduction reads as weakness rather than as opportunity.

A property that has sat for four months with two price cuts is worth less than the same property freshly listed at the eventual price. The market has learned something about the seller.

Setting the number

Use achieved transactions in the same building over the last six to twelve months, adjusted for floor, view and condition, exactly as in price per square foot. Not asking prices, which are hypotheses, and not what you paid, which is sunk.

Then decide deliberately whether to price at, slightly below, or above that level. Slightly below generates competition and frequently achieves more than the higher asking price would have. Above is a bet that your unit is genuinely differentiated, and it costs you the first three weeks if it is not.

Vacant or tenanted

This is the decision sellers get wrong most often.

A tenanted unit sells to investors only. A vacant unit sells to investors and to end users, and end users pay more because they are buying a home rather than a yield. Vacant possession typically commands a premium for that reason alone.

Against that, an empty unit earns nothing while it sits, and the notice required to end a tenancy for sale is twelve months served correctly. So the decision has to be made a year before you intend to sell, which is why it is so often made by default.

If the tenancy is at or above market and expires soon, tenanted may be fine. If it is well below market, you are asking an investor to buy a capped income stream, and they will price it accordingly.

The costs, so the net is not a surprise

Agency commission with VAT. The no objection certificate fee. Trustee charges. Any early settlement fee on your mortgage, which is a real number and frequently forgotten. Service charges paid to the transfer date.

Add them before deciding whether the sale is worth doing at all. The transaction cost drag framework applies to the exit exactly as it did to the entry.

Presentation, briefly

Empty and clean beats furnished and lived in for photography. Fix the small visible defects, because buyers extrapolate from them to the things they cannot see. Professional photographs are worth their cost several times over on a listing that will be scrolled past in two seconds.

The arithmetic

Set the price achieved transactions, same building, 6-12 months adjusted for floor, view, condition NOT asking prices, NOT what you paid The three week rule weeks 1-3 the active buyer pool sees it fresh weeks 4+ the pool has already discounted it a listing with two cuts sells below a listing that opened at the eventual price Net proceeds agreed price - agency commission + VAT - NOC fee - trustee and transfer charges - mortgage early settlement fee - service charge to the transfer date = what actually reaches you Vacant vs tenanted vacant investors + end users, higher price, no income while it sits, 12 months notice to arrange tenanted investors only, priced off the passing rent

Where it breaks

  • Pricing high to leave room for negotiation assumes buyers negotiate up from an anchor. In a market with comparable listings they simply look at the comparable listing instead.
  • It assumes reliable transaction data exists for your building. For unusual or thinly traded properties, comparables may be genuinely absent and the price is a wider range.
  • The vacant possession premium varies by market segment and is largest at the end-user end. For a pure investment tower it may be small or absent.
  • Ending a tenancy to sell requires twelve months correctly served notice, and getting the procedure wrong costs a year rather than a fee.
  • Agents are paid on completion, not on price, so their incentive to close is stronger than their incentive to hold out. That is not dishonesty, it is arithmetic worth understanding.
  • In a falling market, the first three weeks logic still applies but the correct price is below the last comparable rather than at it, which sellers find hardest to accept.

When to use it

A year before you intend to sell, because the tenancy decision needs that long. Then again the week before listing, to set the number from data rather than from hope.

Run it on your own numbers

The Net Rental Yield does this arithmetic for you, in your currency, in about thirty seconds.

Open the calculator

Sources

  1. Dubai Land Department, real estate transaction data
  2. Dubai Land Department, fees and charges
  3. Dubai Pulse, DLD transactions open dataset

Last reviewed . Commercial relationship disclosure: the author works in Dubai real estate brokerage. See the disclosure standards. Disclosure standards.