Calculators / Portfolio
Safe Withdrawal Rate
There is no single safe withdrawal rate, there is a range, and the honest thing to do is show you all of it. Bengen's original work gave four percent. His later revision, with a wider asset mix, raised it. Morningstar's forward-looking work, starting from today's valuations, lowered it. Your number sits somewhere in that spread.
Your numbers
Result
These are real, inflation adjusted rates applied to a portfolio you have not yet built. Sequence of returns risk means the order of your returns matters as much as the average, which is why the conservative column exists. This is arithmetic, not a plan. A plan needs a regulated adviser.
Read the rule, the arithmetic and the honest list of where this breaks.
Open the playbookQuestions people ask
Is the four percent rule still valid?
It is a starting point that is actively contested. Bengen's original work produced four percent, his later revision with a broader asset mix raised it, and Morningstar's forward looking work from current valuations has been lower. The honest answer is a range, which is why this calculator shows three at once.
Why does the order of returns matter?
A bad decade at the start of drawdown does far more damage than the same decade at the end, because you are selling units while they are cheap and they never come back. This is sequence of returns risk, and it is the main reason the conservative column exists.
Should I use a nominal or a real return?
Real, after inflation. All three withdrawal rates assume you increase your spending with inflation each year, so the return assumption has to be on the same basis or you will double count.
What does this deliberately not do?
It does not model taxes, healthcare, a mortgage running into retirement, or guardrails that cut spending in bad years. It gives you the size of the target. Getting to it, and drawing from it safely, is work for a regulated adviser.
Investments Playbook publishes educational research and general information. Nothing on this site is personal investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Property and securities can fall in value. Past performance does not predict future returns. Figures shown are indicative and may be delayed. Always take regulated professional advice before acting.
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