Free, ungated, and meant to be linked to
Dubai took seven years to get back to its 2015 price
The official Dubai Land Department residential sale index, 159 consecutive months from March 2011 to May 2024. Every brokerage in this city sells Dubai on the surge that ended this series. Far fewer mention the 85 months in front of it.
DLD residential sale index, all residential property (2012 = 1.000). Source: Dubai Land Department, residential sale index (open data). Shown from March 2011 to May 2024, retrieved 1 September 2026.
The cycle, in four legs
Index change between the turning points the data itself picks out.
| Leg | Period | All | Flats | Villas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The run-up | 2011-03 → 2015-05 | +28.2% | +30.5% | +32.5% |
| The slide | 2015-05 → 2021-06 | -18.1% | -19.3% | -26.1% |
| The surge | 2021-06 → 2024-05 | +54.8% | +67.8% | +68.3% |
| Whole series | 2011-03 → 2024-05 | +62.5% | +76.6% | +64.7% |
Two things worth taking from this
The recovery took 7.1 years. The index peaked at 1.306 in May 2015 and did not close above that level again until June 2022 — 85 months. Anyone who bought at the top and needed their money in 2019 did not have the option of waiting for this cycle. That is what a property market's illiquidity actually costs, and it is not visible in any headline growth figure.
Villas fell much harder, and did not rise enough to make it back. Through the slide villas gave up -26.1% against -19.3% for flats. Through the surge the two are level — +68.3% for villas against +67.8% for flats, a gap of well under a percentage point. A bigger hole and the same climb out of it is why, over the whole 159 months, flats are the ones ahead: +76.6% against +64.7%. “Villas always outperform” is a description of 2021 onwards that got mistaken for a rule about Dubai.
At the end of the series the average recorded price was AED 1,514,243 across all residential property, AED 1,500,469 for flats and AED 2,929,379 for villas.
Method
- Source. Dubai Land Department, residential sale index (open data), retrieved 1 September 2026.
- Coverage. 159 consecutive months, March 2011 to May 2024. No gaps and no interpolation — every month in that span is a published reading.
- The index. Published by the DLD with 2012 as the base year, so 1.000 is the 2012 average. It is a transaction index, not a valuation model.
- Turning points. Not chosen by hand. The peak is the highest reading before 2017, the trough is the lowest reading after it, and the recovery is the first month closing above the peak. Change the data and they move.
- What it cannot tell you. Anything after May 2024, anything about a specific building or area, and anything about what you would achieve on a sale today. It is a market-wide history.
- Corrections. If something here is wrong it should be fixed rather than defended. Tell me.