Including the ones that went wrong
Every forward-looking claim this site makes, the date it was made, and what actually happened. Plus every correction issued. Most places publishing market opinion do not keep a page like this, for a reason that becomes obvious the moment you keep one.
No hit rate is shown. Nothing has been scored yet. It appears at 10.
A call is a sentence that can turn out to be wrong. It goes on this page the day it is published, with a date it resolves by, and it is never removed. If the resolution date passes and the call has not been scored, it appears here marked overdue, by name, until it is. Deleting the ones that aged badly is the specific failure this page is built to prevent.
Where a claim can be reduced to a number — a rate above a level on a date, a series higher than where it started — it names a public data series and a threshold, and a script fetches the data and applies the test. Nobody on this side decides those. A call that cannot be reduced to a number is scored by hand and labelled scored by hand wherever it appears, because that is a person judging their own work and you should read it that way.
No hit rate is published until there are 10 scored calls. A percentage computed on three is worse than no percentage, and every forecaster who has ever quoted one on a small sample was quoting the sample, not the skill.
A correction runs on the issue it corrects as well as here, so a reader who finds the original later sees it too. Read off the issues themselves, so one cannot exist on a brief and be missing from this page.
An earlier version of this issue quoted the Treasury curve at 4.17, 4.64 and 5.17 percent for 25 August, and gold at 4,636.20. Those figures came from a feed the site has since replaced. Every figure below is now the one published on the market data page, sourced from FRED at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, whose latest curve observation is 24 August.
Investments Playbook publishes educational research and general information. Nothing on this site is personal investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Property and securities can fall in value. Past performance does not predict future returns. Figures shown are indicative and may be delayed. Always take regulated professional advice before acting.