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Playbooks / Valuation

Price to rent

The price to rent ratio is a property's price divided by a full year of rent on the same property, and it is the cleanest single figure for comparing how expensive housing is between cities, across time, and against the alternative of simply renting.

The rule

Price to rent asks how many years of rent it would take to buy the thing you are renting. Nothing more. That plainness is the reason it survives when more sophisticated measures do not: it needs two numbers, both of which are observable, and it cannot be quietly manipulated by an assumption about growth.

It is also the gross rental yield upside down. A ratio of fourteen is a seven percent gross yield; a ratio of twenty five is four percent. Which way up you write it is a matter of who you are. Buyers of income write it as a yield. People deciding where to live write it as a ratio, because years of rent is a unit a person can feel.

Why it travels better than most property numbers

Almost every other property figure is contaminated by local rules. Yields shift with what the local market counts as a running cost. Returns shift with what tax does to them. Prices per square foot shift with how a country measures a square foot.

Price to rent has none of that in it. Both numbers come from the same property in the same currency at the same moment, and the currency cancels. That makes it one of the few figures that can honestly be compared between Dubai and London, or between Dubai now and Dubai eight years ago.

The comparison is only ever a starting point, but it is a starting point that is genuinely the same shape in both places, which is more than can be said for most of what gets compared across borders.

What the number is hiding

Everything that happens after the purchase.

The ratio contains no service charge, no property tax, no maintenance, no insurance, no agency fee, no transfer fee, and no mortgage. It compares a price against an income and stops. Two markets at an identical ratio of eighteen can produce completely different answers to the question of whether to buy, because one of them charges an annual property tax of one and a half percent and the other charges none, and because one costs three percent to transact in and the other costs ten.

Dubai is a specific case of this. Its ratios look attractive next to London's largely because there is no annual property tax and no income tax on the rent, which is a real advantage. What partially offsets it is a round trip transaction cost near eight to ten percent and a service charge that has no British equivalent in size. Neither of those is in the ratio, and both belong in the decision, which is what transaction cost drag and the service charge and the reserve fund are for.

The bands, and why to distrust them

You will see the same three bands everywhere: under fifteen, buy; fifteen to twenty, it depends; over twenty, rent.

They are American, and they carry the American cost stack in exactly the way the one percent rule does. Imported without adjustment they will tell you that most of Dubai is a reasonable buy and most of London is not, which is a conclusion that happens to be defensible for reasons that have very little to do with the bands themselves.

The way to use them is as a prompt rather than a verdict. A ratio of thirty is not proof of a bubble, but it is a market that has to deliver capital growth for buyers to come out ahead, and it is worth being explicit that this is the bet being made.

Where it is genuinely powerful

Against itself, over time.

A single city's price to rent ratio tracked over a decade is one of the most informative series in property, because it separates two things that move together in headlines and independently in reality. Prices rising while the ratio holds is rent rising too, which is demand. Prices rising while the ratio climbs is prices detaching from what the asset produces, which is something else.

That is the same distinction the reverse the assumption habit forces in any valuation: work out what the current price requires the future to do, then decide separately whether you believe it. A rising ratio is that requirement getting larger, stated in the simplest units available.

For the actual decision, the ratio hands off to rent versus buy, which adds the costs back and returns a break-even hold period. The ratio tells you the question is worth asking. It does not answer it.

The arithmetic

Price to rent = Price / Annual rent on the same property Its reciprocal is the gross yield Gross yield = 1 / Price to rent A ratio of 14.3 is a 7.0% gross yield A ratio of 25.0 is a 4.0% gross yield The bands usually quoted, and their origin under 15 buying often cheaper than renting 15 to 20 depends on costs and hold period over 20 renting often cheaper unless prices rise These come from American cost structures. Recalculate them the same way the one percent rule has to be recalculated. The comparison that actually decides it Annual cost of owning = running costs + financing + amortised round trip cost - the growth you are prepared to underwrite against Annual cost of renting

Where it breaks

  • It contains no cost of ownership whatsoever. Two cities at the same ratio can differ by several percentage points a year once property tax, service charges and transaction costs are put back in.
  • It ignores the cost of capital entirely. The same ratio means something very different when a mortgage costs three percent than when it costs seven, because the alternative use of the deposit has changed.
  • It says nothing about growth, and growth is what buyers in a high ratio market are actually paying for. A high ratio is a market pricing in appreciation, which may or may not arrive.
  • The rent in the denominator is usually an asking rent from a listing portal, while the price is often a recorded transaction. Mixing an aspiration with a fact quietly biases the ratio downward.
  • Comparing cities requires the tenures to be comparable, and they frequently are not. Security of tenure, who pays the agent, and how much it costs to transact all differ, and none of them appear in the ratio.

When to use it

When comparing one city against another, or one moment in a market against its own history, and as the first sanity check before a rent versus buy decision. It sets up the question rather than answering it.

Run it on your own numbers

The Rent versus Buy does this arithmetic for you, in your currency, in about thirty seconds.

Open the calculator

Sources

  1. BIS residential property price statistics
  2. Dubai Land Department open data, real estate transactions
  3. London rental yields

Last reviewed . Educational research, not personal advice. Disclosure standards.