1. The long end is doing the talking
On 24 August the US Treasury curve put the two year at 4.24 percent, the ten year at 4.70 and the thirty year at 5.23. The ten year and the thirty year each eased four basis points on the day while the two year did not move at all. The gap between the two year and the thirty year is 99 basis points, a basis point short of a full percentage point.
A curve this steep at the long end is not the market pricing rate cuts. It is the market pricing term premium: the extra yield investors demand for lending across thirty years rather than two. That premium responds to supply, to inflation uncertainty, and to how confident lenders feel about the fiscal path, none of which a central bank controls directly. The composition is worth reading too. The ten year real yield is 2.38 percent and the ten year breakeven inflation rate is 2.32 percent, so of that 4.70 nominal, slightly more than half is compensation for real return and slightly less than half is compensation for expected inflation. It is worth separating the two stories, because they call for different responses. Short rates falling is a growth story. Long rates staying high is a risk story.
If you hold long duration bonds because someone told you bonds are the safe part, this is the moment to check what duration you actually own. If you are pricing a property purchase, the thirty year yield is the anchor most mortgage pricing eventually follows, and 5.23 percent is not a number that argues for cheaper borrowing next year. The US thirty year mortgage rate in the week to 20 August was 6.65 percent, roughly 142 basis points above the thirty year Treasury, which is close to its normal spread rather than a distressed one. And if you are running a discounted cash flow on an off-plan payment plan, a 2.38 percent real yield is the floor your discount rate should start from.
The arithmetic behind this What bonds are for
Sources: U.S. Treasury constant maturity series via FRED, 10 year breakeven inflation rate, FRED, Freddie Mac 30 year fixed mortgage average via FRED